Author: Dmytro Kriher (Dan Krieger)
Date: January 2026
Abstract
This paper presents The Propagation Metric, a structural framework designed to evaluate whether growth generated by products, features, advertisements, messages, or ideas can persist after paid distribution ceases. Existing growth measurement systems prioritize performance metrics—such as return on ad spend (ROAS), conversion rates, and engagement indicators—that capture efficiency and responsiveness under active intervention. While these metrics are valuable for optimizing short-term outcomes, they are insufficient for diagnosing whether growth mechanisms are inherently self-sustaining.
The Propagation Metric addresses this limitation by shifting the unit of analysis from outcomes to mechanisms. It evaluates whether an initiative possesses structural properties that enable repeated, autonomous transmission through social and system-level processes. Rather than predicting virality or measuring quality, the framework assesses whether exposure to an initiative increases the likelihood of future exposures without additional force. This paper formalizes propagation as a first-class growth variable, outlines its structural components, explains how it can be evaluated without historical performance data, and discusses its implications for product development, advertising, and strategic decision-making.
Keywords: growth mechanics, self-sustaining growth, propagation, viral mechanisms, product-market fit, network effects, organic growth
